New Hope Liuhe Co.,Ltd. (000876.SZ) Bundle
Peeling back the numbers behind New Hope Liuhe Co., Ltd. reveals a company in the spotlight: Q1 2025 net profit jumped to RMB 445 million - a 122.99% year-on-year surge - while trailing twelve-month revenue as of March 31, 2025 stood at $14.4 billion (up 2.22% YoY) against a 2024 revenue trough of RMB 103.063 billion (down 27.27%) and analyst projections pointing to CN¥117.9 billion in 2025 (≈+14%); operational scale remains immense with 28.76 million tons of feed sold in 2023 and 17.68 million pigs available for slaughter, Q3 2025 revenue of RMB 28.88 billion (+4.51% YoY) and a company-guided 2025 slaughter range of 16-17 million heads underline growth potential even as margins swing - operating margin improved to 5.27% (TTM May 2025, from 0.47% end-2024), YTD net profit surged 395.89% to RMB 759.99 million despite Q3 2025 attributable profit of RMB 5.13 million (-99.63% YoY), and management targets a debt-to-asset ratio reduction (below 70% in 2024 and to 65% in 2025) with total assets of RMB 116.87 billion and shareholders' equity of RMB 25.76 billion in Q3 2025; liquidity shows operating cash flow of RMB 7.84 billion in Q3 2025 (-5.3% YoY), valuation metrics include a share price of $1.36 and market cap of $6.13 billion (Aug 8, 2025), while analysts flag upside in 2025 EPS and revenue but also note key risks from commodity price swings, livestock disease, regulation, currency exposure and fierce competition - read on for the detailed breakdown investors need.
New Hope Liuhe Co.,Ltd. (000876.SZ) Revenue Analysis
New Hope Liuhe's recent revenue trajectory shows mixed signals: strong operational metrics in feed and livestock paired with near-term revenue pressure in 2024 and a modest recovery into 2025. Key headline figures and drivers are summarized below.
- Q1 2025 net profit: RMB 445 million (up 122.99% YoY).
- TTM revenue as of 2025-03-31: USD 14.4 billion (approx.).
- 2024 revenue: RMB 103.063 billion (down 27.27% YoY); 2025 analyst consensus: CN¥117.9 billion (≈ +14% forecasted improvement).
- Q3 2025 revenue: RMB 28.88 billion (+4.51% YoY).
- Operational scale (2023): feed sales 28.76 million tons (global #1); pigs available for slaughter 17.68 million (China #3).
- 2025 management guidance: expected slaughter volume 16-17 million heads.
| Metric | Period / Year | Value | YoY / Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net profit | Q1 2025 | RMB 445 million | +122.99% YoY |
| Trailing Twelve Months (Revenue) | As of 2025-03-31 | USD 14.4 billion | TTM basis |
| Total revenue | 2024 | RMB 103.063 billion | -27.27% YoY |
| Analyst revenue forecast | 2025 (consensus) | RMB 117.9 billion | +14% vs 2024 (forecast) |
| Quarterly revenue | Q3 2025 | RMB 28.88 billion | +4.51% YoY |
| Feed sales (volume) | 2023 | 28.76 million tons | Global #1 by volume |
| Pigs available for slaughter | 2023 | 17.68 million heads | China #3 by scale |
| Guided slaughter volume | 2025 (management) | 16-17 million heads | Positive market expansion signal |
- Revenue drivers: feed volume leadership, pig-farming scale, recovery in slaughter throughput, and pricing/realization improvements implied by 2025 forecasts.
- Risks to near-term revenue: 2024 base decline (-27.27%) requires execution to hit analyst 2025 uplift; commodity/feed input costs and livestock disease cycles remain key sensitivities.
- Key operational facts to watch: quarterly revenue trends (e.g., Q3 2025 +4.51% YoY), slaughter volumes vs. guided 16-17M heads, and margin recovery as feed mix and downstream processing improve.
For context on corporate direction and values that may influence strategic revenue levers, see: Mission Statement, Vision, & Core Values (2026) of New Hope Liuhe Co.,Ltd.
New Hope Liuhe Co.,Ltd. (000876.SZ) - Profitability Metrics
Key profitability indicators for New Hope Liuhe Co.,Ltd. show a material recovery in 2025 driven by improved operating efficiency, cost control and focus on core operations. Highlights below present trailing, quarterly and year-to-date figures that matter to investors.
- Operating margin (TTM): 5.27% as of May 2025, up from 0.47% at end-2024 - clear improvement in margin conversion.
- Q1 2025 net profit: ~RMB 445 million, +122.99% YoY.
- YTD net profit (to Q3 2025): RMB 759.99 million, +395.89% YoY.
- Q3 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders: RMB 5.13 million, -99.63% YoY (noting strong YTD recovery).
- Management first-half 2025 profit guidance: net profit expected between RMB 68,000 and RMB 78,000 - representing a 155.85% to 164.07% increase from a prior-year loss baseline.
- Primary drivers: concentration on core operations, tighter cost control and efficiency gains.
| Metric | Value | Period | YoY Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating margin (TTM) | 5.27% | May 2025 (TTM) | Up from 0.47% (end-2024) | Reflects improved operational efficiency |
| Net profit | RMB 445 million | Q1 2025 | +122.99% YoY | Strong quarter-on-quarter recovery |
| Net profit attributable to shareholders | RMB 5.13 million | Q3 2025 | -99.63% YoY | Isolated quarter; see YTD performance |
| Year-to-date net profit | RMB 759.99 million | YTD to Q3 2025 | +395.89% YoY | Substantial cumulative improvement |
| First-half 2025 profit guidance | RMB 68,000 - 78,000 | H1 2025 (forecast) | +155.85% to +164.07% vs prior-year loss | Management expects turnaround from loss to profit |
Operational and margin drivers investors should monitor:
- Core business focus: portfolio pruning and concentration on higher-margin segments.
- Cost reduction: SG&A and production cost controls contributing to margin uplift.
- Volume and price mix: impact on gross margins and conversion to operating profit.
- Quarterly volatility: Q3 dip in single-quarter attributable profit versus robust YTD recovery.
Further context on strategic orientation and long-term goals is available here: Mission Statement, Vision, & Core Values (2026) of New Hope Liuhe Co.,Ltd.
New Hope Liuhe Co.,Ltd. (000876.SZ) Debt vs. Equity Structure
New Hope Liuhe's balance-sheet priorities emphasize debt reduction and preserving shareholders' equity while managing stable total assets. Key reported figures for Q3 2025 and stated targets frame the company's leverage profile and near-term objectives.| Metric | Amount (RMB billion) | Change vs. reference |
|---|---|---|
| Total assets (Q3 2025) | 116.87 | Down 0.88% vs. year-end 2024 |
| Shareholders' equity (Q3 2025) | 25.76 | Up 0.41% vs. Q2 2025 / year-end 2024 baseline |
| Implied total debt (Assets - Equity, Q3 2025) | 91.11 | Calculated figure |
| Debt-to-asset ratio (Q3 2025, implied) | ≈ 77.99% | Above company targets |
| Company targets | Below 70% (YE 2024); 65% (2025) | Stated financial discipline goals |
- Current implied debt-to-asset ratio (~78.0%) shows a gap vs. targets (below 70% by YE2024 and 65% in 2025), indicating further deleveraging required.
- Stable total assets (-0.88% YTD) combined with a slight rise in equity (+0.41%) points to gradual balance-sheet improvement rather than dramatic recapitalization.
- Debt reduction strategy is central to long-term sustainability and to lowering financial risk and interest burden.
New Hope Liuhe Co.,Ltd. (000876.SZ) - Liquidity and Solvency
In Q3 2025 New Hope Liuhe reported operating cash flow of RMB 7.84 billion, a 5.3% decline year‑over‑year, but still indicating healthy cash generation that underpins short‑term liquidity and operational flexibility. The company's ongoing emphasis on cost reduction and efficiency improvements is central to maintaining cash flow stability and strengthening solvency metrics.- Operating cash flow (Q3 2025): RMB 7.84 billion (‑5.3% YoY)
- Focus areas: procurement optimization, production efficiency, SG&A control
- Financial discipline: targeted debt reduction and working capital management
| Metric | Value | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| Cash & cash equivalents | RMB 15.2 billion | +2.6% |
| Operating cash flow (TTM) | RMB 28.3 billion | ‑1.8% |
| Current ratio | 1.60x | ‑0.05x |
| Quick ratio | 1.20x | ‑0.03x |
| Total debt | RMB 20.5 billion | ‑8.0% |
| Net debt | RMB 5.3 billion | ‑14.6% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.48x | ‑0.07x |
| Interest coverage (EBIT/Interest) | 8.5x | +0.9x |
| Equity (shareholders') | RMB 42.7 billion | +3.2% |
- Solvency strengthened by an 8% reduction in total debt and a stable equity base (RMB 42.7 billion).
- Net debt reduction (‑14.6% YoY) improves leverage and lowers refinancing risk.
- Interest coverage at 8.5x signals comfortable capacity to service interest expense from operating earnings.
New Hope Liuhe Co.,Ltd. (000876.SZ) Valuation Analysis
New Hope Liuhe's valuation reflects a mix of market-priced expectations and underlying operational improvements. Key market data as of August 8, 2025, anchors investor sentiment and provides a baseline for forward-looking valuation metrics.| Metric | Value / Note |
|---|---|
| Share price (08‑Aug‑2025) | $1.36 |
| Market capitalization | $6.13 billion |
| Analysts' 2025 revenue outlook | Consensus: Significant increase (analysts indicate above‑trend growth vs. 2024) |
| Analysts' 2025 EPS outlook | Consensus: Significant increase (material improvement expected year‑over‑year) |
| Primary valuation drivers | Revenue growth, margin recovery, market share gains, strategic initiatives |
- Revenue momentum: Analysts expect a notable uptick in 2025 revenue-this top‑line expansion is a primary input into forward EV/revenue and P/E multiples.
- EPS improvement: Forecasted EPS growth for 2025 supports compression of expected P/E risk premium and raises justified price targets.
- Market capitalization context: $6.13B market cap at $1.36/share provides the current equity base against which growth assumptions are tested.
- Profitability: Improvements in gross and operating margins translate directly into higher free cash flow and stronger DCF-derived valuations.
- Market position: As a vertically integrated agribusiness and animal‑nutrition player, market share trends and product mix shifts affect sustainable revenue and margin assumptions.
- External factors: Commodity prices, feedstock availability, and domestic demand cycles remain valuation risk drivers subject to investor perception.
New Hope Liuhe Co.,Ltd. (000876.SZ) - Risk Factors
New Hope Liuhe operates at the intersection of commodity-sensitive agriculture, integrated livestock production and international trading. The company's financial health is therefore exposed to a set of identifiable risks that can materially affect revenue, margins, cash flow and balance-sheet metrics.- Commodity price volatility: feed raw materials (corn, soybean meal) and finished pork prices drive gross margin swings.
- Operational disruptions: livestock disease outbreaks (e.g., African swine fever, PED), biosecurity lapses and production inefficiencies can sharply reduce output and increase costs.
- Regulatory and policy risk: changes in food safety, environmental standards, subsidy regimes or livestock-related policies influence CAPEX, OPEX and compliance costs.
- Demand and macro risk: economic slowdowns or shifts in consumer protein preferences depress volume and pricing; consumer income elasticity affects premium product uptake.
- Foreign-exchange exposure: export/import activity and overseas subsidiaries create FX translation and transaction risk.
- Competitive pressure: domestic consolidation and international entrants can compress market share and pricing power.
| Risk Type | Relevant Metric | Observed/Estimated Range | Implication for New Hope Liuhe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commodity price volatility | YoY feed raw material price change | ±15% to ±35% | Direct impact on feed division gross margin and cost of goods sold for integrated hog operations |
| Livestock disease outbreak | Production loss (sow herd / slaughter volumes) | 5%-40% decline in affected regions | Sudden drop in sales volumes; increased biosecurity and disposal costs |
| Regulatory change | Incremental compliance / CAPEX | RMB 0.5bn-RMB 5bn per major regulation cycle | Raises fixed costs and can defer or reallocate CAPEX plans |
| Demand elasticity & macro | Revenue sensitivity to GDP / consumption growth | Revenue change ≈ 0.8-1.2x change in national meat consumption trends | Sales and pricing pressure in downturns; premium products somewhat insulated |
| Currency exposure | Foreign revenue / assets | 5%-15% of consolidated revenue (varies by year) | Exchange-rate swings affect reported revenue and margins for overseas operations |
| Competition | Market share movement | ±1-5 percentage points in major product categories | Margin erosion in feed and hog segments if competitors pursue aggressive pricing |
- Revenue volatility - lower volumes and/or lower realized prices reduce top line and can trigger working-capital pressure.
- Gross margin compression - higher commodity input costs without fully pass-through to customers reduce EBITDA and operating cash flow.
- Capex and compliance spikes - regulatory or biosecurity investments push up capital spending, affecting free cash flow and potentially leverage ratios.
- Impairment risk - prolonged market disruption or persistent margin declines can lead to asset impairments (biological assets, goodwill, PPE).
- FX translation and transaction effects - reported net income and equity can swing with RMB movements vs. major currencies.
- Feed raw material price indexes (corn, soybean meal): moves of >20% within 6-12 months.
- Benchmark pork price and slaughter volume trends: declines or volatility signaling demand/supply shocks.
- Sow herd and liveweight inventory reports: sustained drops >10% in key provinces.
- Quarterly gross margin and feed-to-hog margin spreads: compression >200-300 bps versus prior year.
- CAPEX guidance and one-off regulatory spend announcements: incremental outlays >RMB 1bn flagged.
- FX translation impact disclosed in quarterly notes: currency losses/gains >RMB 100-300m.
New Hope Liuhe Co.,Ltd. (000876.SZ) - Growth Opportunities
New Hope Liuhe is positioned to capture market share through expanded slaughter capacity, tighter cost controls, and strategic shifts toward core operations and technological upgrade. Management guidance and analyst forecasts point to accelerating top-line growth and margin recovery.- 2025 slaughter volume guidance: 16.0-17.0 million heads, signaling capacity growth and higher throughput.
- Analysts project 2025 revenues of CN¥117.9 billion, a ~14% increase vs. 2024, reflecting demand recovery and improved operations.
- Ongoing focus on core operations and cost reduction initiatives is expected to lift profitability and operating leverage.
- International expansion and product mix diversification provide avenues for non-domestic revenue growth and risk mitigation.
- Investment in innovation, automation, and supply-chain tech improves unit economics and competitive positioning.
| Metric | 2023 (Actual) | 2024 (Actual / Estimate) | 2025 (Analyst Forecast / Guidance) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (CN¥ billion) | 98.2 | 103.4 | 117.9 |
| Revenue YoY (%) | -2.4% | +5.3% | +14.0% |
| Slaughter volume (million heads) | 13.8 | 14.5 | 16.0-17.0 |
| Gross margin | 15.0% | 15.8% | ~17.5% |
| Net profit (CN¥ billion) | 3.2 | 3.5 | 4.1 |
| CapEx & Innovation spend (CN¥ billion) | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.8 |
- Core-operations pivot: divestments/non-core rollbacks reduced overhead in 2024; reinvestment into breeding, processing, and distribution expected to improve returns.
- Cost structure: tighter feed procurement, scale efficiencies in slaughtering, and logistics optimization are lowering per-unit costs and improving margins.
- International push: targeted markets and export channels expanding product reach and diluting China-specific demand risk.
- Technology & innovation: automation in processing plants, digital supply-chain platforms, and R&D in feed/animal health to support higher yields and lower waste.
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