Tianshan Aluminum Group Co., Ltd. (002532.SZ) Bundle
Dive into a data-driven look at Tianshan Aluminum Group Co., Ltd. (002532.SZ): Q3 2025 operating revenue held steady at 6.994 billion yuan while year-to-date revenue through three quarters rose to 22.32 billion yuan (up 7.34% YoY), set against a 2024 annual revenue of 28.09 billion yuan; profitability showed strength with Q3 net profit of 1.256 billion yuan (up 24.30% YoY), YTD net profit of 3.34 billion yuan (+8.31% YoY), Q3 EPS of 0.27 yuan (+22.73% YoY) and an attractive ROE of 16.99%; the balance sheet reveals moderate leverage (debt-to-equity 0.45) with total liabilities down 16.34% to 26.92 billion yuan, total equity at 29.05 billion yuan and an interest coverage ratio of 9.98, while liquidity flags include a current ratio of 0.98 and quick ratio of 0.48 even as operating cash flow jumped 32.28% YoY to 4.86 billion yuan and free cash flow in Q3 fell 51.43% to 1.46 billion yuan; valuation metrics show a market capitalization of 62.85 billion yuan with a P/E of 13.32 and forward P/E of 11.18, EV/EBITDA of 8.64 and P/B of 2.13; key risks range from global aluminum price swings and regulatory or supply-chain shocks to currency and geopolitical exposure, while growth levers include plans to expand electrolytic aluminum capacity to 1.4 million tonnes, a 2 million-tonne alumina project in Indonesia, a 160,000-tonne aluminum foil Phase I, potential bauxite mining in Indonesia, and shareholder-friendly moves (≥30% dividend payout policy for 2025-2027 and share repurchases), so keep reading to unpack what these figures mean for investors assessing value, risk and upside.
Tianshan Aluminum Group Co., Ltd. (002532.SZ) - Revenue Analysis
Tianshan Aluminum's top-line trajectory through 2024-2025 shows mixed momentum: modest contraction in the full year 2024, strong start in Q1 2025, and stabilization by Q3 2025. Key headline figures and dynamics follow.- Q3 2025 operating revenue: ¥6.994 billion (down 0.25% YoY)
- YTD (first three quarters) 2025 operating revenue: ¥22.32 billion (up 7.34% YoY)
- Q1 2025 operating revenue: ¥7.925 billion (up 16.12% YoY)
- Annual revenue 2024: ¥28.09 billion (down 3.06% YoY)
- Revenue per employee: ≈ ¥4.38 million (6,756 employees)
- Market capitalization: ¥62.85 billion; P/S ratio: 1.95
| Period | Operating Revenue (¥bn) | YoY Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | 7.925 | +16.12% | Strong start to 2025, highest quarterly YoY gain reported |
| Q2 2025 (implied) | 7.401 | - | Calculated to align YTD and Q1/Q3 figures (approx.) |
| Q3 2025 | 6.994 | -0.25% | Marginal quarterly decline; sequential moderation from Q1 |
| YTD 1-3Q 2025 | 22.320 | +7.34% | Full nine-month improvement versus 2024 |
| Full year 2024 | 28.090 | -3.06% | Annual contraction versus prior year |
| Employees / Revenue per employee | 6,756 / ¥4.38m | - | Efficiency indicator used for labor productivity comparisons |
| Market metrics | Market cap ¥62.85bn | P/S 1.95 | Valuation relative to sales |
- Quarter-to-quarter pattern: Q1 surge (16.12% YoY) followed by moderation and a slight decline by Q3, producing a positive YTD outcome (+7.34%).
- Per-employee productivity: ¥4.38 million suggests a capital- and margin-dependent revenue base versus peers in aluminium manufacturing.
- Valuation context: P/S of 1.95 and market cap ¥62.85 billion position the company at roughly two times annual sales, implying investor expectations for steady margins or growth.
Tianshan Aluminum Group Co., Ltd. (002532.SZ) - Profitability Metrics
Tianshan Aluminum Group delivered notable profitability improvements through the first three quarters of 2025, driven by higher margins, stronger quarterly earnings and improved capital efficiency.
- Q3 2025 net profit: 1.256 billion yuan, +24.30% year-on-year.
- YTD (Q1-Q3) 2025 net profit: 3.34 billion yuan, +8.31% year-on-year.
- Q1 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders: 1.058 billion yuan, +46.99% year-on-year.
- Q3 2025 net profit margin: 17.96%.
- Q3 2025 EPS: 0.27 yuan, +22.73% year-on-year.
- Return on equity (ROE): 16.99%.
Key drivers behind these figures include improved operational margins and effective capital deployment. The ROE near 17% signals efficient use of equity to generate profit, while the near-18% net margin in Q3 underscores robust margin management in the current cycle.
| Metric | Period | Value | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net profit | Q3 2025 | 1.256 billion yuan | +24.30% |
| Net profit (cum.) | Q1-Q3 2025 | 3.34 billion yuan | +8.31% |
| Net profit attributable to shareholders | Q1 2025 | 1.058 billion yuan | +46.99% |
| Net profit margin | Q3 2025 | 17.96% | - |
| Earnings per share (EPS) | Q3 2025 | 0.27 yuan | +22.73% |
| Return on equity (ROE) | Latest reported | 16.99% | - |
For additional context on corporate direction and strategic priorities that may affect future profitability, see Mission Statement, Vision, & Core Values (2026) of Tianshan Aluminum Group Co., Ltd.
Tianshan Aluminum Group Co., Ltd. (002532.SZ) - Debt vs. Equity Structure
Tianshan Aluminum Group's capital structure shows moderate leverage and solid coverage metrics, combining lower liabilities with substantial equity and healthy cash flow support for debt servicing.
- Debt-to-Equity Ratio: 0.45 - moderate financial leverage, indicating liabilities are less than half of shareholders' equity.
- Total Liabilities: ¥26.92 billion - down 16.34% year-on-year, signaling deleveraging or liability reduction.
- Total Equity: ¥29.05 billion - supports resilience against downside scenarios; P/B ratio = 2.13.
- Interest Coverage Ratio: 9.98 - strong ability to meet interest obligations from operating earnings.
- Debt-to-EBITDA: 1.71 - manageable leverage relative to operating profitability.
- Debt-to-Free Cash Flow: 2.65 - indicates efficient conversion of earnings into cash to service debt.
| Metric | Value | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.45 | Moderate leverage; equity cushion > liabilities |
| Total Liabilities | ¥26.92 billion | 16.34% YoY decrease |
| Total Equity | ¥29.05 billion | Solid shareholders' base; P/B = 2.13 |
| Price-to-Book (P/B) | 2.13 | Market values equity at ~2.1x book |
| Interest Coverage Ratio | 9.98 | Strong earnings buffer for interest expenses |
| Debt-to-EBITDA | 1.71 | Low-to-moderate leverage relative to EBITDA |
| Debt-to-Free Cash Flow | 2.65 | Efficient cash flow relative to debt level |
Key practical implications for investors:
- Lower total liabilities and a debt-to-equity of 0.45 reduce solvency risk in cyclical downturns.
- Interest coverage near 10x offers comfort against rising rates or temporary earnings pressure.
- Debt-to-EBITDA of 1.71 and debt-to-free-cash-flow of 2.65 suggest manageable refinancing needs and adequate operational cash conversion.
- Market P/B of 2.13 implies investors are paying a premium to book - assess growth prospects vs. valuation.
For broader corporate context, see: Tianshan Aluminum Group Co., Ltd.: History, Ownership, Mission, How It Works & Makes Money
Tianshan Aluminum Group Co., Ltd. (002532.SZ) - Liquidity and Solvency
Tianshan Aluminum Group's short-term liquidity profile shows signs of stress while underlying cash generation remains mixed. The current ratio stands at 0.98, marginally below the 1.0 benchmark commonly used to flag adequate short-term coverage, and the quick ratio is 0.48, reflecting limited ability to meet immediate liabilities with cash and near-cash assets.- Current ratio: 0.98 (below the 1.0 threshold)
- Quick ratio: 0.48 (indicates constrained liquid coverage)
- Operating cash flow (first 9 months 2025): ¥4.86 billion, up 32.28% year‑on‑year
- Free cash flow (Q3 2025): ¥1.46 billion, down 51.43% year‑on‑year
- Total assets: ¥55.97 billion, down 4.47% year‑on‑year
- Return on assets (ROA): 6.42%
| Metric | Value | YoY Change / Note |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.98 | Slightly below 1.0 benchmark |
| Quick Ratio | 0.48 | Low immediate liquidity |
| Operating Cash Flow (9M 2025) | ¥4.86 billion | +32.28% YoY |
| Free Cash Flow (Q3 2025) | ¥1.46 billion | -51.43% YoY |
| Total Assets | ¥55.97 billion | -4.47% YoY |
| Return on Assets (ROA) | 6.42% | Indicates effective asset utilization |
- Short-term coverage is tight: sub‑1 current ratio and low quick ratio increase rollover/working capital risk.
- Operating cash flow growth (32.28% YTD) supports operations and may finance near-term obligations if sustained.
- Sharp decline in free cash flow in Q3 (‑51.43% YoY) suggests higher capex, working capital build, or one‑off outflows reducing discretionary cash.
- Total assets contracting (‑4.47%) alongside a 6.42% ROA implies assets are being used relatively efficiently despite a smaller asset base.
Tianshan Aluminum Group Co., Ltd. (002532.SZ) - Valuation Analysis
Tianshan Aluminum's current valuation metrics point to a stock priced modestly relative to earnings and cash flow, with moderate enterprise multiples and a premium to book value. Key headline figures are summarized below.| Metric | Value | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Price-to-Earnings (P/E) | 13.32 | Reasonably priced relative to current earnings |
| Forward P/E | 11.18 | Potential undervaluation based on projected earnings |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.64 | Moderate enterprise valuation |
| EV/FCF | 13.39 | Fair valuation on free-cash-flow basis |
| Market Capitalization | 62.85 billion CNY | Size and liquidity indicator |
| P/S (Price-to-Sales) | 1.95 | Valued near twice annual sales |
| P/B (Price-to-Book) | 2.13 | Trading at a premium to book value |
- P/E 13.32 vs. Forward P/E 11.18 - implies expected earnings growth or margin improvement priced in.
- EV/EBITDA 8.64 - aligns with mid-market industrial peers, indicating neither deep discount nor expensive premium.
- EV/FCF 13.39 - shows investors pay a moderate multiple for the company's cash-generation capacity.
- Market cap 62.85B CNY with P/S 1.95 and P/B 2.13 - revenue multiple modest, but balance-sheet premium suggests asset-backed valuation.
- Quality of forthcoming earnings (forward P/E 11.18) relative to cyclical aluminum prices and downstream demand.
- Cash-flow stability and capex needs driving the EV/FCF multiple of 13.39.
- Balance sheet strength relative to the 2.13 P/B - tangible assets, inventory and receivables dynamics.
Tianshan Aluminum Group Co., Ltd. (002532.SZ) Risk Factors
Tianshan Aluminum Group Co., Ltd. (002532.SZ) faces a range of company- and market-level risks that can materially affect revenue, margins and cash flow. Below are the principal risk factors, their transmission channels to financial performance, and illustrative numerical magnitudes based on recent market behavior and macro trends.- Commodity price risk: fluctuations in global aluminum prices
| Risk | Transmission channel | Illustrative financial impact |
|---|---|---|
| Aluminum price volatility | Revenue/COGS, inventory revaluation | ±20-30% revenue per tonne variability; potential mid-single-digit to double-digit % swing in gross margin |
| Environmental regulation | CapEx/Opex increases, output constraints | Required retrofits or cleaner fuel can raise annual operating cost by low-to-mid single digits of revenue; one-time CapEx could be hundreds of millions RMB depending on scope |
| FX volatility (CNY/USD) | Export competitiveness, imported inputs pricing | Exchange moves of 5-10% can change USD-denominated export revenue and imported energy/consumables cost by comparable amounts |
| Demand shock | Reduced sales volumes, price pressure | Economic downturns in key markets can cut volumes by >10% y/y in severe cycles |
| Supply chain disruption | Delayed shipments, higher logistics and working capital | Lead-time increases of 20-50% and inventory carrying cost rises; spot premium on freight/materials |
| Geopolitical tensions | Trade barriers, sanctions, market access limits | Loss of specific export markets or customers could lower revenue in affected corridors by double-digit % if concentrated |
- Regulatory and environmental compliance
- Foreign-exchange exposure
- Demand concentration and macro cycles
- Supply-chain and logistics risks
- Geopolitical risks
| Channel | Observable metric | Implication for investors |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | LME aluminium price range ~$1,900-$3,200/ton (2022-2024) | Monitor gross margin per tonne, hedging policy, and finished-product mix |
| Regulation | Periodic environmental inspections, regional energy quotas | Check CapEx plans, environmental liabilities, and output curtailment history |
| FX | CNY/USD movement ~6.3-7.4 (recent years) | Assess currency hedging and revenue/cost currency profile |
| Demand | Construction/auto cyclical indicators, China PMI | Follow order book, utilization rates, and backlog trends |
| Supply chains | Lead times, freight rate indices | Review inventory days, payables, and supplier concentration |
| Geopolitics | Tariff measures, export restrictions announcements | Evaluate geographic revenue mix and contingency plans |
- Realized aluminum selling price/ton and hedging disclosures
- Gross margin per tonne and EBITDA margin trends
- CapEx guidance and environmental remediation provisions
- Inventory days, receivable days and working-capital swings
- Export share of revenue and currency mismatch
- Utilization rates and product mix shifts (primary vs. downstream)
Tianshan Aluminum Group Co., Ltd. (002532.SZ) - Growth Opportunities
Tianshan Aluminum is pursuing a multi-pronged expansion across upstream alumina/bauxite and downstream aluminum products that materially affect mid‑term production capacity and shareholder returns.- Electrolytic aluminum: expansion to 1.4 million tonnes/year capacity (targeted ramp-up across existing and brownfield sites).
- Alumina refining: development of a 2.0 million tonnes/year alumina project in Indonesia; environmental assessment completed in early 2025.
- Aluminum foil: Phase I (160,000 tonnes/year) scheduled for completion by 2025.
- Bauxite mining: exploration and planned start of Indonesian bauxite operations in 2025 to secure feedstock and lower input volatility.
- Capital allocation & returns: minimum annual dividend payout ratio of 30% for 2025-2027 and a share repurchase program (authorized up to 0.43-0.64% of share capital), with 17.56 million shares repurchased as of July 31, 2025.
| Project | Target Capacity | Key Milestone | Status (as of 2025‑07‑31) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Electrolytic aluminum expansion | 1,400,000 tpa | Staged commissioning 2024-2026 | Capacity target confirmed; progressive commissioning underway |
| Indonesian alumina refinery | 2,000,000 tpa | Environmental assessment completed early 2025 | EA complete; development phase |
| Aluminum foil (Phase I) | 160,000 tpa | Completion by 2025 | Phase I on schedule for 2025 completion |
| Bauxite mining (Indonesia) | Feedstock for refinery & smelters (project scale TBD) | Operations expected to start 2025 | Exploration complete/permit stage; start planned 2025 |
| Share buyback | 0.43-0.64% of share capital | Program ongoing | 17.56 million shares repurchased (as of 2025‑07‑31) |
| Dividend policy | ≥30% payout ratio (2025-2027) | Annual shareholder distribution commitment | Policy announced and guiding capital allocation |
- Investor implications: vertical integration (bauxite → alumina → aluminum) can reduce feedstock exposure and improve gross margins if Indonesian projects start on schedule in 2025-2026.
- Return mechanics: the combination of ≥30% dividend payouts and modest buybacks (17.56M shares repurchased to date) signals a shareholder‑friendly stance while growth capex continues.
- Execution risks: project timelines, commodity price swings (alumina/aluminum), permitting and capex execution in Indonesia remain key drivers of realization.
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