Breaking Down Lucky Harvest Co., Ltd. Financial Health: Key Insights for Investors

Investors diving into Lucky Harvest Co., Ltd. (002965.SZ) will find a mix of momentum and caution: the company reported CNY 6.74 billion in revenue for fiscal 2024 (up 18.25% from CNY 5.70 billion) with TTM revenue of CNY 6.81 billion as of July 8, 2025, and a five‑year average revenue growth of 29.1% p.a., yet net income fell to CNY 359.44 million in 2024 (down 11.63%), dragging net margin to 5.3% and EPS to CNY 1.30 (‑26.6%); the balance sheet shows conservative leverage with a debt‑to‑equity of 0.09, total debt of CNY 378.47 million and a net cash position of CNY 1.13 billion, book value of CNY 4.27 billion (book value per share CNY 16.07), current and quick ratios of 1.48 and 0.94 respectively, an Altman Z‑Score of 2.8 and Piotroski F‑Score of 4, while market valuation metrics include a trailing P/E of 65.16 (compared with a historical average of 24.20), forward P/E 22.12, P/B 2.34, EV/EBITDA 19.93 and EV/FCF 27.94 alongside market caps of CNY 9.06 billion (July 8, 2025) and CNY 10.01 billion (Dec 5, 2025); strategic moves-partnerships with SANDU Intelligent and Wudi Electronics, a technology center with the Guangdong Academy of Sciences, expansion projects in Mexico and Thailand (including a Thai subsidiary with THB 180 million registered capital)-support management projections of revenue rising to CNY 11.30 billion and net profit to CNY 704 million by 2026, offering clear figures for readers weighing valuation, liquidity and growth prospects.

Lucky Harvest Co., Ltd. (002965.SZ) - Revenue Analysis

Lucky Harvest reported strong top-line expansion into FY2024 and maintained momentum into the TTM period ending July 8, 2025. Key revenue metrics and market context are summarized below.

• FY2024 revenue: CNY 6.74 billion (vs. CNY 5.70 billion in FY2023), an 18.25% YoY increase.
• TTM revenue (as of 2025-07-08): CNY 6.81 billion, up 4.13% vs. the prior-year TTM.
• Five‑year average revenue growth: 29.1% per annum.
• Revenue per employee: ~CNY 977,760 (total workforce: 6,964).
• Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio: 1.33; Market capitalization: CNY 9.06 billion (as of 2025-07-08).

• Growth profile: FY2024's double-digit YoY increase (18.25%) sits below the five‑year average (29.1%), indicating faster expansion in earlier years with moderation into 2024-2025.
• Efficiency: Revenue per employee (~CNY 0.98M) provides a useful productivity benchmark versus peers and supports workforce-driven revenue scaling.
• Valuation context: A P/S of 1.33 implies the market values each yuan of sales at ~CNY 1.33; combined with CNY 9.06bn market cap, investors can assess growth vs. price paid for sales.

Further background on the company's origins, ownership and business model can be found here: Lucky Harvest Co., Ltd.: History, Ownership, Mission, How It Works & Makes Money

Lucky Harvest Co., Ltd. (002965.SZ) - Profitability Metrics

Key profitability outcomes for 2024 highlight weakening margins and lower shareholder returns versus 2023.

• Profit contraction: net income fell to CNY 359.44m, down 11.63% year-over-year.
• Margin compression: gross margin slid to 13.66% and net margin to 5.3%, indicating cost pressure or pricing stress.
• Shareholder returns: ROE at 5.99% and EPS down 26.6% to CNY 1.30 signal diminished capital efficiency and earnings per share dilution of performance.
• Operational efficiency: operating margin of 3.28% suggests limited operating leverage amid revenue or cost headwinds.

For context on investor interest and shareholder composition, see: Exploring Lucky Harvest Co., Ltd. Investor Profile: Who's Buying and Why?

Lucky Harvest Co., Ltd. (002965.SZ) - Debt vs. Equity Structure

• Debt-to-equity ratio: 0.09 - indicates low leverage relative to shareholders' equity.
• Total debt: CNY 378.47 million; Cash & cash equivalents: CNY 1.51 billion - net cash: CNY 1.13 billion.
• Equity (book value): CNY 4.27 billion; Book value per share: CNY 16.07.
• Current ratio: 1.48 - adequate short-term liquidity to cover current liabilities.
• Quick ratio: 0.94 - near 1.0, showing most short-term obligations can be met without relying on inventory.
• Interest coverage ratio: 20.36 - operating income covers interest expense by a wide margin.

• Investment implications: conservative balance sheet reduces refinancing and solvency risk; net-cash allows strategic optionality.
• Risk considerations: low leverage can limit return amplification in high-growth scenarios; quick ratio slightly below 1 suggests monitoring of working-capital trends.
• Where to read more on company background: Lucky Harvest Co., Ltd.: History, Ownership, Mission, How It Works & Makes Money

Lucky Harvest Co., Ltd. (002965.SZ) - Liquidity and Solvency

• Current ratio: 1.48 - sufficient short-term assets relative to short-term liabilities.
• Quick ratio: 0.94 - below 1.0, indicating reliance on inventory to meet near-term obligations.
• Interest coverage ratio: 20.36 - robust capacity to cover interest expense (EBIT multiple).
• Altman Z-Score: 2.8 - moderate bankruptcy risk (zone of concern but not immediate distress).
• Piotroski F-Score: 4 - mixed/weak score suggesting limited recent operational improvements.
• Net cash position: CNY 1.13 billion - a tangible liquidity buffer against shocks.

• Operational implication: The sub-1 quick ratio suggests working capital tied up in inventory or receivables; inventory management or faster receivables collection would materially improve near-term liquidity.
• Credit and refinancing: High interest coverage reduces refinancing risk, supporting creditor confidence despite a moderate Altman Z-Score.
• Balance-sheet resilience: The CNY 1.13 billion net cash position mitigates downside risk from cyclical pressures or one-off write-downs.
• Fundamental outlook: A Piotroski F-Score of 4 warrants monitoring of profitability, leverage, and cash-flow trends for signs of operational recovery.

Lucky Harvest Co., Ltd. (002965.SZ) Valuation Analysis

• Trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E: 65.16 vs. historical average P/E: 24.20 - a premium of 169% to the long-run average.
• Forward P/E: 22.12 - materially lower than the TTM P/E, implying the market expects significant earnings improvement.
• P/B (price-to-book): 2.34 - equity valued at more than twice the book value, indicating expected return on equity above historical book returns or intangible value not captured on the balance sheet.
• EV/EBITDA: 19.93 - a relatively high multiple that prices the company as a premium business vs. lower-multiple peers or sector medians.
• EV/FCF: 27.94 - the market is assigning a high value to the company's free cash flow generation.
• Market capitalization: CNY 10.01 billion (as of 2025-12-05).

• Interpretive considerations for investors:
  • A large TTM/forward P/E gap (65.16 → 22.12) implies either one-time earnings weakness in the trailing period or that analysts expect near-term profitability to rebound sharply.
  • P/B of 2.34 suggests investors expect returns on invested capital above the cost of equity or that intangible assets/brand value are significant.
  • EV/EBITDA ~20 and EV/FCF ~28 position Lucky Harvest among higher-valued peers; assess whether growth trajectory and margin expansion justify these multiples.
• Practical next steps (data points to validate):
  • Confirm forward EPS drivers in analyst consensus and company guidance.
  • Reconcile reconcile non-recurring items that inflated the TTM P/E.
  • Compare these multiples to sector and direct peer medians to gauge relative premium.

Lucky Harvest Co., Ltd. (002965.SZ) - Risk Factors

• Financial stability: Altman Z-Score = 2.8, indicating moderate bankruptcy risk and the need to monitor solvency and earnings quality.
• Fundamental weakness: Piotroski F-Score = 4, signaling limited strength across profitability, leverage, liquidity and operating efficiency metrics.
• Profitability pressure: Net profit margin fell from 7.1% in 2023 to 5.3% in 2024, reflecting margin compression and potential cost or pricing challenges.
• Liquidity constraints: Quick ratio = 0.94, below 1.0, implying potential difficulty meeting short-term liabilities without relying on inventory sales.
• Valuation risk: Trailing P/E = 65.16, materially above typical historical averages-this could reflect overvaluation or high market growth expectations that must be met.
• Operational/expansion risk: Entry into new markets (e.g., a subsidiary established in Thailand) adds execution, regulatory, currency and market-share risks during scaling.

• Cash flow sensitivity: With thinning margins and a sub-1 quick ratio, negative cash-flow shocks (input-cost spikes, receivable deterioration) could force asset sales or financing on unfavorable terms.
• Execution and integration risk: Overseas setup in Thailand requires capex, local management, supply-chain adjustments and compliance-any delay or misstep could amplify margin pressure.
• Market-expectation risk: A trailing P/E of 65.16 embeds high growth expectations; failure to restore margin trends or accelerate revenue could lead to sharp multiple compression.
• Credit and refinancing risk: Moderate Altman Z-Score and liquidity below 1 raise sensitivity to rising interest rates or tighter credit conditions.
• Operational leverage: Lower profitability combined with fixed-cost structures can magnify earnings volatility if revenue growth slows.

Lucky Harvest Co., Ltd. (002965.SZ) - Growth Opportunities

• Strategic partnerships: signed cooperation agreements with SANDU Intelligent and Wudi Electronics to deepen involvement in humanoid robots and new energy vehicle (NEV) components.
• Technology collaboration: establishing a joint technology innovation center with the Guangdong Academy of Sciences to develop intelligent solutions for humanoid robots, accelerating R&D and IP creation.
• International expansion: active projects in Mexico and Thailand targeting major automotive clients, plus a Thailand subsidiary with registered capital of 180 million THB to serve Southeast Asian markets.

• Robotics roadmap: the Guangdong Academy of Sciences center aims to shorten prototype-to-production cycles for humanoid robot modules and control systems, supporting higher-margin product lines.
• Automotive/NEV opportunity: collaboration with Wudi Electronics and Mexico/Thailand plants targets supply contracts with OEMs and tier-1 suppliers, expected to lift capacity utilization and gross margins.
• Financial scalability: revenue doubling from 5.70B (2023) to 11.30B (2026) and net profit growth to 704M indicate scalable operations if execution risks (supply chain, customer wins, tech commercialization) are managed.